Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans closed $.15 – $.18 higher, led by Jan-23 futures, wiping out nearly all of yesterday’s losses. Spreads firmed as this week’s winter blast will restrict farmer movement. Soybean meal was up $2 – $3 per ton while soybean oil is up 120 – 160 points. Today’s forecast is drier for drought stricken areas of South American. Forecasts still offer moderate rains for Northern Argentina into Southern Brazil over the holiday weekend followed by a week to 10 days of mostly dry but cooler conditions. No significant drought relief for at least a few more weeks however midday maps did offer some rain in Northern Argentina for the week 2 of the outlook. Dr. Cordonnier lowered his Argentine soy prod. est. 2 mmt to 45 mmt vs. USDA 49.5 mmt. He left his Brazilian forecast steady at 151 mmt, below USDA’s 152 mmt. Chinese Covid worries continue to threaten their reopening as reported cases soar. Chinese equity markets were down over 1% overnight. Jan-23 soybeans continue to chop sideways in a $14.60 – $14.95 range. Jan-23 soybean oil has rebounded to its best level in just over 2 weeks with today’s high stopping at its 100 day MA at 66.32.
CORN
Prices closed $.02 – $.04 higher. Mch-23 remains stuck in its $6.35 – $6.60 trading range closing today at $6.52. Ukraine’s Black Sea corn exports were 515k tons in the week ended Dec. 18th, down 22% from the previous week. There are 84 vessels awaiting inspection in Turkey, up from 82 last week. With inspections running only 5 – 9 per day, wait times are well over a week. The market is also adding war premium as Russian air assaults on Ukraine’s infrastructure remain elevated. The Ukraine government plan to prioritize electrical supplies to key agricultural and food processing facilities. Corn production in the EU and UK is expected to rebound in 2023 to 64.5 mt up from 2022 drought reduced production of 50.7 mt. Barley production is forecast to reach 60 mt, up from 58.5 mt. Tomorrow’s ethanol production data likely to show a slow-down from last week’s 1.061 tbd pace.
WHEAT
Prices closed steady to slightly higher in all 3 classes however well off the morning highs. Chicago was steady, KC were up $.02 – $.03, while MGEX was up $.05 – $.06. It seems any support generated from this week’s extreme cold and wind in the Southern Plains is being offset by prospects for higher winter wheat production following yesterday’s updated insurance data from the USDA RMA. Plugging in planted acres at 34.5 mil. (up 1.2 mil. YA), harvest acres of 26.75 mil. and applying a trend yield of 50 bpa would result in winter wheat production of 1.338 bil. bu. up 224 mil. from YA and the highest in 7 years. Obviously its early and a lot can happen between now and harvest, particularly with the majority of the crop in drought, but it’s a starting point as we approach the USDA winter wheat acreage report just over 3 weeks away.
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