Ag Market View for Dec 19.22
Soybeans ended lower. Talk of needed rains across the dry areas of Argentina and concern about US soybean export demand offered resistance. March soybean futures had rallied from an early October low near 13.71 to an early November high near 14.96 on lower US supplies and dry Argentina weather. Today, SH tested first support near 14.63. US weekly soybean export inspections were near 59 mil bu vs 70 ly. Season to Date exports are 919 vs 1,007 ly. USDA goal is 2,045 vs 2,158 last year. Some could see US 2022/23 soybean carryout closer to 260 mil bu vs USDA 200 due to lower demand. One group still est US 2023 soybean acres near 88.5 mil vs 87.4 ly. 15.00 SH should be strong resistance unless there is SA weather problem or outlook for global 2023 economy improves.
Corn futures ended lower. Talk of needed rains across the dry areas of Argentina and concern about US corn demand offered resistance. March corn futures had dropped from an early October high near 7.11 to an early December low near 6.35 on lower US demand. CH rallied to near 6.60 on dry Argentina weather but tested 6.44 on more concern about demand. US weekly corn exports were near 29 mil bu vs 39 ly. Season to date exports are 311 vs 446 ly. USDA goal is 2,075 vs 2,471 last year. Some could see US 2022/23 corn carryout near USDA 1,257 mil bu. One group still est US 2023 corn acres near 92.0 mil vs 88.6 ly. They est US 2023 yield is est at 180.1 with carryout near 2,040 mil bu. 6.70 CH and 6.00 CZ23 should be strong resistance unless there Is SA weather problem or outlook for global 2023 economy Improves. USDA did announce 141 mt US corn to Mexico. US Fed commitment to increase interest rates to fight inflation could pull US economy into a recession which could slow food and fuel demand.
Wheat futures ended mixed. Chicago and MLS ended lower. KC ended higher. There was some concern over cold temps across US HRW areas with little snow cover. Some say farmers are more concerned about the dryness than the cold temps. March wheat futures had dropped from an early May high near 12.73 to an August low near 7.60 on lower US demand. WH rallied to near 9.62 concern about south hemisphere weather but tested 7.23 on more concern about demand. US weekly wheat exports were near 11 mil bu vs 8 ly. Season to date exports are 420 vs 428 ly. USDA goal is 775 vs 800 last year. One group est US 2023 wheat acres near 47.2 mil vs 45.7 ly. They est US 2023/24 carryout near 600 mil bu. 7.70-8.00 WH should be strong resistance unless there problem with Black Sea exports or outlook for global 2023 economy improves.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.