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Ag Market View for Dec 16.22


Soybeans and soymeal ended higher. Soyoil ended lower. Soybeans and soymeal were supported by dry Argentina weather. Soymeal gained on soyoil on more liquidation of soyoil share. Matif rapeseed prices are lowest since the last week in 2021. Global fats and oil production is estimated near 252.3 mmt vs 245.4 ly. Consumption is 251.8 vs 241.9 ly. End stocks are est near 34.3 vs 33.7 ly. Palmoil production is 80.3 vs 77.3 ly. Use is up 8 pct vs last year at 80.0 mmt. End stocks are 15.7 vs 15.1 ly. World soyoil production is 32.2 vs 31.0 ly. End stocks 6.3 vs 6.2 ly. World soymeal production is 254.3 mmt vs 249.1 ly. End stocks 9.0 vs 8.3 ly. Soybean futures up to SA weather and China soybean demand.


Corn futures ended unchanged. CH was is a narrow holiday trading range. Lack of US farmer selling and dry Argentina weather offers unseasonable support.  Slow demand for US export and slowing demand for US ethanol and feed use offers resistance. US corn export commit is 48 pct lower than last year at this time. Argentina corn planting is behind average. Crop is rated 18 pct G/E vs 83 ly. Brazil Dec corn exports were 6.8 mmt vs 3.4 ly. US Ag Attache est Ukraine corn crop near 23 mmt vs USDA 27. USDA est Ukraine corn exports near 20 mmt vs 17.5.Ukraine has left 9 mmt of corn still in fields. This may not get harvested until spring, US cash markets remain firm on lack of farmer selling and slow movement logistics. US Fed Chairman pledge to keep increasing rates offered resistance to US stocks. Concern about China demand offered resistance to Crude and corn. Talk of higher rates offered support to US Dollar.

Grain bins at dusk


Wheat futures ended lower. Funds continue to be short Chicago wheat given slow demand for US wheat and talk of higher Russia and Australia supplies. Dry Argentina and US south plains weather is offset by concern about US/World recession, higher US Dollar and lower commodity prices led by Crude. Some even discount concern over next weeks cold weather across US plains and south Midwest. WH continues to slide lower from May high neat 12.73. KC also continues to slide from May high near 13.62 and is testing Aug low near 8.11. MLS has also dropped from May high near 13.90 to August low near 8.76 and for 5 months has traded in a 9.00-10.00 range.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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