Ag Market View for Apr 30

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by Steve Freed

SOYBEANS

Soybeans traded higher. Managed funds turned buyers after US weekly soybean and soyoil export sales were higher than expected. Talk that China was also a buyer of 300 mt US Aug/Sep soybeans today also offered support. There is no weather news to suggest any further short covering or buying. Some note end users may not be willing  to add coverage on today’s rally. There was some talk of new farmer selling on today’s rally. Weekly US soybean export sales were better than expected. Sales were near 40 mil bu. Total commit is near 1,435 mil bu versus 1,656 last year. China was the best buyer. USDA goal is 1,775 mil bu versus 1,748 last year. Some are using final exports closer to 1,675. Same group could see US 2019/20 soybean carryout near 585 mil bu versus USDA est of 480. 2020/21 soybean carryout could be near 555 mil bu versus USDA outlook conference estimate of 320. US soybean planting pace is estimated near 17 vs 11 ave.

CORN

Corn futures traded higher. Better than expected weekly US corn export sales, good sorghum sales, lower than expected May corn deliveries and continued rally in Crude helped trigger new buying today. There was also talk that China approved an additional 1.5 mmt of corn import quotas. There is no weather news to suggest any further short covering or buying. Some note end users may not be willing to add coverage on today’s rally. There was some talk of new farmer selling on today’s rally. Weekly US corn export sales were near 53 mil bu. Mexico was the best buyer. Total commit is near 1,446 mil bu versus 1,813 last year. USDA export goal is 1,725 mil bu versus 2,065 last year. Some feel final exports could be closer to 1,675. Same group still want to sell cash on rallies. Some now look for US 2019/20 corn carryout closer to 2,765versus USDA 2,091 and 2020/21 corn carryout near 4,165. US corn planting pace is estimated near 46 pct done versus 39 average. US Midwest 2 week forecast is favorable for crops.

WHEAT

Wheat futures closed higher. Wheat tended to follow the higher trade in corn and soybean and lower trade in US Dollar. There is some concern that 35 pct of the SW US HRW growing are is dry. Lack of May Chicago wheat deliveries may have also offered support. Chicago wheat futures hit 6 week lows. KC hit 4 week lows and Minn wheat made new contract lows on better EU and Black Sea weather. Weekly US wheat export sales were near 17 mil bu. This was also higher than expected. Total commit is near 953 mil bu versus 935 last year. USDA estimate export near 985 versus 936 last year. US 2019/20 carryout is estimated near 970 versus 1,080 last year. Estimates for US 2020/21 carryout is near 750. US 2019 HRW crop was 833 mil bu with KS 338. Some est current 2020 crop near 715 with KS near 277. This week some private est of KS were as lows as 230.

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