Written Commentary
by Steve Freed,
SOYBEANS
Soybeans traded lower. Managed funds are small net shorts in soybeans, soymeal and soyoil. Lack of new China demand for US soybeans and lower palmoil prices offered resistance. Weekly US soybean exports were near 20 mil bu versus 18 last year and 11-22 expected. Season to date exports are near 1,230 mil bu versus 1,158 last year. Exports are running 72 mil bu above last year. USDA is estimating and increase of 27. Key will be China purchases. Talk of higher US 2020 supply and concern about demand for US soybean offers resistance. Fact US farmers could add 9-10 million more acres in 2020 than last year could add to supplies and weigh on prices. Some are suggesting US farmers be a scale up seller of old crop supplies and 2020 crop. US 2 week weather forecast looks favorable for crops.
CORN
Corn futures traded lower. Drop in ethanol demand and lower Energy prices continues to weigh on futures. Fact US exports are running behind pace to reach USDA goal could also drop final exports versus USDA estimate. Closing of US meat processing plants could also lower feed use until plants reopen. Higher 2020 US crop and continues slow recovery of US ethanol demand is expected to increase US 2020/21 carryout. Weekly US corn exports were near 42 mil bu versus 54 last year and 31-39 expected. Season to date exports are near 878 mil bu versus 1,364 last year. Pace is running 487 mil bu behind last year versus USDA estimate of a 340 mil bu drop. Most look for US corn planting pace to be near 22-24 pct done. This is well ahead of last year but near average. Farmers in NE, IA and IL are near done. Some feel US corn planting may be down by May 12. US corn farmers signed up 70 pct of bases acres in the PLC crop insurance program. Farmers could get payments on those acres if cash prices drop below 3.70.
WHEAT
Wheat futures traded lower. Better chances for rain in parts of Europe and Black Sea weighed on prices. This week, most look for USDA to show a slight increase in US 2020 winter wheat crop ratings. Interesting to note that crop scouts and farmers walking through wheat fields in KS and OK are finding signs that the earlier freeze may have caused more damage than expected. Some crop watchers are worried the final KS wheat crop could drop below some private estimates near 296 mil bu and last year crop of 338. Russia did announce limiting wheat export in May and June but this has little impact of futures. Weekly US wheat exports were near 18 mil bu versus 23 last year. Season to date exports are near 827 mil bu versus 787 last year. Exports are running 40 ahead of last year versus USDA estimate of a 49 mil bu increase.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
