Written Commentary
GRAINS OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is down 4 cents and near 9.74. SMV is near 311.8. BOV is near 32.88. CZ is unchanged and near 3.60. WZ is up 3 cents and near 5.47. KWZ is up 5 cents and near 4.76. Weekly USDA export sales report is delayed until Friday due to Mondays holiday. US stocks are lower after recent Wednesdays gain. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. US election is 54 days away.US revoked more than 1,000 Chinese nationals visas thought to be security risks.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 5 yuan in soybeans, up 23 in Corn, up 25 in Soymeal, down 38 in Soyoil, and down 38 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 7 ringgit at 2,821 (basis November) at midsession with expectations of rising production limiting gains.
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the US Midwest looks to be fairly quiet during this time period. Any rainfall would be light and favor the eastern Midwest. Temps are seen below average in the northwest half of the Midwest and above average temps in the southeast. The 11 to 16 day outlook for the Midwest has below average precip in most of the Plains and Midwest. Temps will run average to below in the Midwest and average in the Plains.
On Friday, USDA will issue their monthly US/World supply and demand report. September report will include corn field survey along with a new farmer survey. Average corn crop trade guess is 14,891 mil bu versus USDA Aug guess of 15,278. Trade is looking for a US 2020/21 carryout of 2,461 versus USDA Aug 2,756. Corn futures have rallied with funds going net long after the USDA Aug report and while weekly crop ratings have declined,
Some estimate Ukraine crop near 32-36 mmt versus USDA 39.5.
Also on Friday USDA will issue a new US/World soybean supply and demand report. September report will include average pod count and seed size/weight along with a new farmer survey. Average soybean crop trade guess is 4,292 mil bu versus USDA Aug guess of 4,425. Trade is looking for a US 2020/21 carryout of 469 versus USDA Aug 610.Soybean futures have rallied with funds adding to their net long after the USDA August report with China a steady buyer of US soybeans and while weekly crop ratings have declined. There was talk China was looking for Apr-May Argentina soybean and soyoil.
Also on Friday USDA will issue a new US/World wheat supply and demand report. Most do not look for many changes to the wheat numbers. USDA could increase Australia, Canada and Black Sea wheat crops. Trade is looking for a US 2020/21 carryout of 926 versus USDA Aug 925.wheat futures have rallied with funds adding to their net long after the USDA August report and due to higher Black Sea and French futures prices. Black Sea wheat prices continue to trade higher and new season highs.
On Wednesday, Managed Money were net even in SRW Wheat; sold 5,000 Corn; bought 6,000 Soybeans; net bought 3,000 lots of Soymeal, and; sold 2,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 12,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 24,000 Corn; net long 188,000 Soybeans; net long 24,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 81,000 Soyoil.
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