Written Commentary
Morning Outlook
Grains are mostly lower. SX is down 1 cent and near 9.72. SMV is near 309.9. BOV is near 32.99. CZ is down 2 cents and near 3.59. WZ is down 2 cents and near 5.42. KWZ is down 2 cents and near 4.67. US stocks are higher after recent steep losses. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher after yesterday’s meltdown. US election is 55 days away.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 21 yuan in soybeans, down 2 in Corn, down 19 in Soymeal, down 42 in Soyoil, and down 24 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 59 ringgit at 2,812 (basis November) ahead of Thursday trade data.
Last night will be another night of freezes in much of the Northern Plains. Light freezes with a few pockets that drop to or slightly below 28 Fahrenheit will occur in MT, N D, western and northern SD, and the northern half of MN. US Midwest 8-10 day forecast calls for normal temps and dry weather. SE could be wet. US Midwest 8-14 day forecast calls for cool temps and dry weather. SE could be wet.
Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had Wheat exports running up 6% ahead of a year ago with the USDA currently forecasting a 1% increase on the year, Corn stats a new market year with exports 50% behind a year ago with the USDA up 24% for the season and Soybeans also start a new market year with exports down 19% on the year with the USDA having a 29% increase forecasted on the year
USDA dropped US corn crop rating to 61 pct good/ex. One crop watchers estimates US corn yield near 176 versus average traded guess of 178.4 and USDA 181.8. 25 pct of the crop yield is below trend including IA, OH, 24 pct of the crop yield is near trend including NE, MI and ND, and 42 pct is above trend including IL, IN, MN, MO, SD and WI. 25 pct of the crop is mature versus 19 average.
USDA dropped US soybean crop rating to 51 pct good/ex. One crop watchers estimates US soybean yield near 51 versus average traded guess of 51.7 and USDA 53.3. 13 pct of the crop yield is below trend including IA, MS, 15 pct of the crop yield is near trend including OH and ND, and 67 pct is above trend including AR, IL, IN, KY. LA, MN, MO, NE, SD, TN and WI. 20 pct of the crop is dropping leaves versus 16 average.
USDA estimated US spring wheat harvest near 82 pct. US 2021 winter wheat plantings are near 5 pct with WA 32 pct and CO 17 pct. Most look for US 2021 US winter wheat acres to be near or slightly below last year. Some feel farmers may plant more sorghum than HRW. Average trade guess for US 2020/21 wheat carryout is 926 mil bu versus USDA 925.
On Tuesday, Managed Money were net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 10,000 Corn; bought 6,000 Soybeans; net sold 3,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 4,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 12,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 29,000 Corn; net long 182,000 Soybeans; net long 21,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 83,000 Soyoil.
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